Barack Obama swept the weekend primaries and is now considered by many to be the Democratic front runner for the nomination, at least until the Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4th. A lot of hay has been made over polls that show Obama with a 5+ point lead over probable Republican nominee John McCain in a hypothetical matchup of the two men. But if Obama’s performance in certain state primaries over the past month is any indication of how he would fair in the general election, any talk of an Obama landslide in the general election is extremely premature.
Let’s take a rough look at a hypothetical Electoral College match-up between John McCain and Barack Obama.
First, states where either John Kerry or George W. Bush won by a 10-point margin in 2004 (and their electoral votes).
Bush (McCain): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3).
Kerry (Obama): District of Columbia (3), Illinois (21), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), West Virginia (5).
Only one of these states might flip from their 2004 result: Louisiana (see below). A case could be made that Obama’s strong showing in the primaries in states such as Georgia and South Carolina merits a closer look, but the South has generally been a Republican stronghold in general elections for the last 20 years.
McCain Safe State Electoral Votes: 174
Obama Safe State Electoral Votes: 89
Now let’s take a look at the rest of the states. I’ll classify each as “leans McCain,” “leans Obama,” “toss-up” or “inconclusive”:
Arkansas (6 EV’s): Bush carried the state by 9% in 2004 and Obama was absolutely trounced in the Arkansas primary last week owing to his opponent’s familiarity in the state. Leans McCain
California (55 EV’s): The biggest prize on the map – Obama lost the Democratic primary by double-digits while McCain won the Republican primary by double-digits. A glut of independent voters and a strong endorsement from Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger might put the state in play eventually, but for now it stays on Obama’s side of the sheet. Leans Obama
Colorado (9 EV’s): A bit of a puzzle – Kerry only lost by 5% in 2004 and the state’s rapidly-changing demographics make it hard to decipher. McCain and Obama’s success or failure in making inroads with the Hispanic voting bloc will most likely decide this state.Toss-up
Connecticut (7 EV’s): Some would find it strange that this state is excluded from a list of “safe Obama” states but the fact is John McCain had an absolutely dominating performance in Connecticut primary, carrying 52% of the vote in a then three-man field. Add in the strong endorsement of McCain by Northeastern staple Rudy Giuliani and I think that Connecticut may be ripe for targeting by the McCain campaign. For now though it stays with Obama. Leans Obama
Delaware (3 EV’s): Another state that is not on the safe Obama list solely due to a strong performance by McCain in the Republican primary. Leans Obama
Florida (27 EV’s): This is the one state where it hurts the Democrats the most to nominate Barack Obama. I don’t care if wasn’t a “true primary,” Hillary dominated Obama in Florida in January winning by 17%. Add in McCain’s strong inroads with Florida’s large military population and the endorsement of Florida Governor Charlie Crist and I see little chance of Obama winning Florida, whereas Hillary would be much more competitive in the state with her base of females over 50. Leans McCain
Hawaii (4 EV’s): To be honest I don’t know that much about Hawaii. Kerry carried the state by 9% four years ago, but Republican Governor Linda Lingle is quite popular. Ultimately, I think the fact that Obama was born in Honolulu trumps everything else. Leans Obama
Iowa (7 EV’s): Iowa is going to be one of the true battlegrounds in 2008 (when is it not!) Recall that Obama won the Iowa caucus nearly a month and a half ago and Bush only carried the state by 10,000 votes in 2004. The people of Iowa have never had much of a taste for John McCain, but if he can somehow energize the state’s large evangelical base between now and November it would definitely make him very competitive. Toss-up
Louisiana (9 EV’s): This is the probably the one state where the 2004 result is least relevant. Bush beat by Kerry by 15% in Louisiana 4 years ago but that was long before the tragedy of Hurricane Katrina. However, don’t go out and automatically throw the state into Obama’s hat. Bobby Jindal, the newly-elected Republican Governor of the state won in a landslide last month and should serve as a reminder that the state is very much in play. Toss-up
Maine (4 EV’s): Mitt Romney crushed McCain in Maine and Barack Obama crushed Hillary Clinton in the respective primaries. So until further notice this state will stay in the Obama hat. Leans Obama
Minnesota (10 EV’s): Republicans always seem to be attempting inroads into the North Star State but to no avail. A quick look at the primary results tells all: Romney crushed McCain and Obama crushed Clinton. Leans Obama
Missouri (11 EV’s): For all the play Missouri gets as a “swing state,” it should be noted that Bush carried the state by 3% in 2000 and then widened that number to 7% in 2004. Clinton and Obama essentially tied in the Democratic primary last week while McCain eked out a 9,000 vote win over Mike Huckabee in the Republican primary. Something tells me this state is going to be decided by a lot fewer than 7% in 2008. Toss-up
Nevada (5 EV’s): This was a nail biter of a state in 2000 (Bush won by less than 20,000 votes) and the Republican primary shed little light on McCain’s popularity in the state (he couldn’t even beat Ron Paul). Meanwhile Obama lost to Hillary by 6% in the Democratic primary. Really not much to go on thus the first…inconclusive.
New Hampshire (4 EV’s): This is the second state where I think Obama’s nomination hurts the Democrats. Kerry won the state in 2004 but John McCain has always seemed like New Hampshire’s “favorite son.” Add in Obama’s then devastating loss to Hillary back in early January and I think that barring further developments this state looks good for McCain. Leans McCain
New Jersey (15 EV’s): Another interesting wrinkle of state for 2008. Recall Gore crushed Bush by 16% in 2000 but then Bush was able to halve that margin against Kerry in 2004 on the strength of 9/11-centric voters living in the “next-door neighbor of New York City.” Now add in a dismal showing for Obama in the New Jersey Democratic primary and McCain’s 27% win over Mitt Romney in the Republican primary and I think that the Garden State could very interesting to watch come November. Probably my most controversial call but for now…toss-up.
New Mexico (5 EV’s): This state was very nearly a grand mess in 2004, as Bush only won by 6,000 votes. Last I checked they were still trying to figure out who won last week’s Democratic Primary, and the June 3rd Republican primary is essentially irrelevant. The state is over 40% Hispanic – a demographic Obama has not fared well with thus far so there might be an opening for McCain. Toss-up
Ohio (20 EV’s): The definition of a battleground state, not really much else to say. Bush won Ohio 51-49 four years ago and neither party has held a primary in the state thus far. Hillary Clinton has turned the Ohio Democratic primary into a high-noon of sorts so it’s hard to get a handle on which way this state will lean once the nominees are established. Ordinarily I would mark this state as inconclusive but everyone knows it’s going to go down to the wire in November. Toss-up
Oregon (7 EV’s): Kerry won the state by 4% and neither party has held a primary yet. But Obama captured nearly 70% of the vote in neighboring Washington State in the primary while McCain couldn’t even crack 30%. Leans Obama
Pennsylvania (21 EV’s): Bush made a real run at the state in 2004 only to come up a couple points shy. McCain has been playing well in Northeastern states like New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, and the Democrats don’t hold their primary in the state until April. So until we get a better idea of how Obama plays in the state…Inconclusive
Virginia (13 EV’s): Yeah, Obama is probably going to beat Hillary by 15% or more in the Commonwealth’s primary on Tuesday, but do we really think he’s got that much of a shot against a non-arch conservative Republican in a state that Bush carried by 8% in 2004 with a pretty hefty military population to boot? I don’t. Leans McCain
Washington (11 EV’s): This is one of those states where everyone might think McCain has a shot (Bush only lost by 7% in 2004) and thus he should devote some time and money to the state. Well, he shouldn’t…Obama wins this state by 5% or more come November.Leans Obama
Wisconsin (10 EV’s): Wisconsin seems to specialize in razor-thin margins in general elections: Gore won by 5,000 votes in 2000 and Kerry won by 9,000 votes in 2004. Third time’s a charm for Republicans in this state? Maybe, but we won’t know very much until the Wisconsin Democratic Primary on February 19th. Inconclusive
Alright, our tour of the nation is complete, let’s survey the results:
Lean McCain Electoral Votes: 50
Lean Obama Electoral Votes: 101
Toss-up: 76
Inconclusive: 36
Adding the “safe” votes to the lean votes gives:
McCain: 224
Obama: 190
270 electoral votes are needed to secure the Presidency in November. Those who think Obama would win in a landslide against John McCain should pay due diligence to the preceding analysis. It’s not too difficult to construct a realistic scenario in which John McCain wins the general election. Simply adding “toss-up” or “inconclusive” states that Bush won (Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio) to the McCain safe/lean total yields 290 electoral votes.
