First McCain Television Ad

The McCain campaign released their first television ad this week entitled “624787.” I won’t say what the title means; watch the ad for yourself to find out.

The ad features several of the same video clips from McCain’s popular web ad “Man in the Arena” which was released earlier this month. The ad mostly touts McCain’s leadership skills, patriotism, experience and to some degree his national security credentials. These are expected to remain among McCain’s central themes in the coming months. If the narrator sounds familiar it is because it’s actor Powers Boothe of HBO’s Deadwood fame and most recently as Vice-President Daniels on the 6th season of “24.”

The new ad is currently running only in New Mexico, a key battlegroud state that Bush carried by less than one percent in 2004.

The Electoral Map – 3/28

School has been kicking my butt lately but let’s take a quick look at the Electoral College in a hypothetical McCain/Obama general election race. I will break down the states into five categories: Strong McCain, Lean McCain, Toss-Up, Lean Obama, and Strong Obama.Strong McCain

Alabama – 9

Alaska – 3

Arizona – 10

Arkansas – 6

Idaho – 4

Indiana – 11

Kansas – 6

Kentucky – 8

Mississippi – 6

Montana – 3

Nebraska – 5

North Dakota – 3

Oklahoma – 7

South Dakota – 3

Tennessee – 11

Texas – 34

Utah – 5

Wyoming – 3

Lean McCain

Florida – 27

Georgia – 15

Louisiana – 9

Missouri – 11

North Carolina – 15

South Carolina – 8

Virginia – 13

West Virginia – 5

Toss-Up

Colorado – 9

Nevada – 5

New Hampshire – 4

New Mexico – 5

Ohio – 20

Pennsylvania – 21

Lean Obama

Iowa – 7

Maine – 4

Massachusetts – 12

Michigan – 17

Minnesota – 10

New Jersey – 15

Oregon – 7

Washington – 11

Wisconsin – 10

Strong Obama

California – 55

Connecticut – 7

Delaware – 3

District of Columbia – 3

Hawaii – 4

Illinois – 21

Maryland – 10

New York – 31

Rhode Island – 4

Vermont 3

Tallying it all up we get:

Strong McCain – 137, Lean McCain – 103, Toss-Up – 64, Lean Obama – 93, Strong Obama – 141

So if the election were held today we’d be looking at McCain 240, Obama 234 with only 6 states in play. My gut says McCain will carry Colorado and New Mexico due to their proximity to Arizona. Nevada could very well go for Obama. I think New Hampshire goes to McCain (he’s their favorite son) which brings the race to McCain 258 Obama 239. This leaves us with an extremely interesting dynamic whereby Obama is forced to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania in order to win the election. Don’t forget Obama carried just 44% of the vote in the Ohio Democratic Primary three weeks ago and he’s currently trailing Hillary Clinton by double-digits in Pennsylvania. Two interesting trends to watch:

1. Can Obama poach traditionally-Republican southern states such as Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina — states where he did or will do extremely well in the Democratic primaries.

2. Can McCain poach traditionally-Democratic northeastern states such as Massachusetts and New Jersey? Massachusetts would be an absolute coup but don’t forget that Bush managed to cut the Republican deficit in New Jersey from 17% in 2000 to 7% in 2004 mostly on the strength of national security voters.

New McCain Web Ad

The McCain 2008 campaign today released their newest web ad entitled: “Man in the Arena”

I don’t think it matters what your political affiliation is…the music, visual imagery and voice recordings will make the hair stand on the back of your neck.