I have seen countless articles in recent weeks purporting McCain’s supposed weakness among Republicans owing to primaries held in April and May. Most critics will point towards Indiana (McCain fetched 77% of the vote), North Carolina (74%), and Pennsylvania (72%) and decry the fact that 1/4 of Republicans are voting against McCain! Egads!
The leftist noise machine would be well served to take a short walk back to the 2000 Republican primaries. McCain is doing no worse than George W. Bush was in the same primaries back in 2000. Here are Bush’s totals in some of the April and May primaries from the 2000 Republican nomination cycle:
Wisconsin – 69%
Idaho – 73%
Indiana – 81%
Montana – 78%
North Carolina – 78%
Pennsylvania – 72%
So the next time someone tries to make the argument that McCain is a weak nominee because he’s struggling to break 80% in these late primaries, remind them that he’s doing no worse than a Republican candidate who scored nearly 100 million votes in 2000 and 2004.
The semester ended last week so expect much more frequent posts for the next few months.
It’s been quite awhile since we last took a look at electoral math for this November’s general election. The big development has obviously been Barack Obama’s all but securing the Democratic nomination. Barring an epic collapse, it’s full steam ahead for a McCain/Obama show-down this November.
Once again every state is placed into one of five categories: Strong McCain, Lean McCain, Tossup, Lean Obama, and Strong Obama. Placements factor in 2000 and 2004 results, current polling data and general intuition.
School has been kicking my butt lately but let’s take a quick look at the Electoral College in a hypothetical McCain/Obama general election race. I will break down the states into five categories: Strong McCain, Lean McCain, Toss-Up, Lean Obama, and Strong Obama.
Strong McCain
Alabama – 9
Alaska – 3
Arizona – 10
Arkansas – 6
Georgia – 15
Idaho – 4
Indiana – 11
Kansas – 6
Kentucky – 8
Mississippi – 6
Montana – 3
Nebraska – 5
North Dakota – 3
Oklahoma – 7
South Dakota – 3
Tennessee – 11
Texas – 34
Utah – 5
West Virginia – 5
Wyoming – 3
Lean McCain
Florida – 27
Louisiana – 9
Missouri – 11
North Carolina – 15
South Carolina – 8
Virginia – 13
Toss-Up
Colorado – 9
Michigan – 17
Nevada – 5
New Hampshire – 4
New Mexico – 5
Ohio – 20
Pennsylvania – 21
Lean Obama
Iowa – 7
Maine – 4
Minnesota – 10
Oregon – 7
Washington – 11
Wisconsin – 10
Strong Obama
California – 55
Connecticut – 7
Delaware – 3
District of Columbia – 3
Hawaii – 4
Illinois – 21
Maryland – 10
Massachusetts – 12
New York – 31
New Jersey – 15
Rhode Island – 4
Vermont 3
Tallying it all up we get:
Strong McCain – 157, Lean McCain – 83, Toss-Up – 81, Lean Obama – 49, Strong Obama -168
