Leading up to the final batch of Democratic primaries on June 3rd I read numerous columns and articles projecting a sizable poll bump for Barack Obama, with the rationale being that longtime Hillary supporters would finally starting throwing their weight behind Obama. Most “strategists” said the bump would be a minimum of 5 or 6 points or as high as 10 or 12 points.
Well Gallup released their most recent tracking poll a few days ago:
Obama – 44%
McCain 42%
?????
The Gallup poll taken right before Obama effectively clinched the Democratic nomination had McCain up 46-45, which means that Obama’s “big bump” has amounted to a measley 3%. So Obama is either much weaker than the conventional wisdom says, McCain is much stronger, or this is poll is an outlier.
I know it’s still mid-June and I know people love love love to say that Bush 41 was down 16% to Dukakis in 1988 and Reagan was down huge in June to 1980, and a poll is still a poll in that the 2,500 odd Americans who Gallup happened to call may not be reflective of the 100 million+ who will vote in less than 5 months time, but the fact that right here, right now, McCain is only down 2% is fantastic.
