Where’s Your Bump Barack?

Leading up to the final batch of Democratic primaries on June 3rd I read numerous columns and articles projecting a sizable poll bump for Barack Obama, with the rationale being that longtime Hillary supporters would finally starting throwing their weight behind Obama.  Most “strategists” said the bump would be a minimum of 5 or 6 points or as high as 10 or 12 points.

Well Gallup released their most recent tracking poll a few days ago:

Obama – 44%

McCain 42%

?????

The Gallup poll taken right before Obama effectively clinched the Democratic nomination had McCain up 46-45, which means that Obama’s “big bump” has amounted to a measley 3%.  So Obama is either much weaker than the conventional wisdom says, McCain is much stronger, or this is poll is an outlier.

I know it’s still mid-June and I know people love love love to say that Bush 41 was down 16% to Dukakis in 1988 and Reagan was down huge in June to 1980, and a poll is still a poll in that the 2,500 odd Americans who Gallup happened to call may not be reflective of the 100 million+ who will vote in less than 5 months time, but the fact that right here, right now, McCain is only down 2% is fantastic.

Memorial Day Weekend Polls

Memorial Day Weekend is generally a benchmark for the start of the real Presidential cycle.  With that in mind here are the three most recent polls I could find pitting McCain against Obama.

Gallup: McCain 47 – Obama 45

Rasmussen: McCain 46 – Obama 44

Newsweek: McCain 46 – Obama 46

Seeing as though recent polls have shown a generic Congressional Republican candidate running about 10-12% behind a generic Congressional Democrat candidate, the McCain campaign should be wild that he is drawing even with Obama at this stage in the race.

Ted Kennedy has a brain tumor

This doesn’t really have much to do with John McCain or the Presidential campaign but Senator Ted Kennedy, who suffered several seizures over the weekend, has been diagnosed with a malginant brain tumor.

“Doctors for the Massachusetts Democrat say tests conducted after Kennedy suffered a seizure this weekend show a tumor in his left parietal lobe. Preliminary results from a biopsy of the brain identified the cause of the seizure as a malignant glioma.”

A lot of people make jokes about Kennedy’s drinking, or some of his embarrassing verbal botches (who can forget “Mark McGweer and Sammy Sooser”?) — but when a guy sees his only two brothers fall dead to assassins’  bullets within  a five-year period, I think it’s okay to cut him a little slack.  Kennedy was also responsible for the unfortunate death of a campaign aide in 1969, and he was nearly killed in a 1964 plane crash.

McCain on SNL

Senator McCain made a somewhat impromptu appearance on Saturday Night Live over the weekend.  He did a 3-minute deadpan monologue then dropped by Weekend Update for a few minutes with some more jokes.  While I didn’t find anything to be laugh-out-loud funny, it’s fantastic the campaign managed to get McCain on the air for a few minutes in front of a predominantly under-30 audience.   Obama has routinely routed Hillary by 65-35 margins among voters age 18-29 in the Democratic Primaries and McCain simply cannot allow that in the general election.  The most heartening thing to take away from this weekend’s SNL experience is the pop McCain got when he was introduced.  I didn’t hear any boos and there were several raucous screams.  The intro and first segment is below.

Mingo County Drubbing

Certainly tonight is a somewhat embarrassing evening for Barack Obama. The presumptive Democratic nominee is down about 40pts right now in West Virginia with 95% of precincts reporting. I was scrolling through the county-by-county results and Mingo County caught my eye. Mingo is a medium-sized county in SW West Virginia on the Kentucky border. Hillary won the county with 88% of the vote with Obama garnering a minuscule 8% of the vote. As far as I can tell this is the single worst performance by either Democrat in any American county so far in the primary cycle.

Obama managed to garner 8%, 14%, and 22% of the vote in the three West Virginia counties that border Kentucky, which holds its primary one week from today. Certainly these results do not bode well for Obama; Clinton will rack up another huge win next week. What does it say when the presumptive Democratic nominee gets absolutely blasted twice in 7 days?

2000 Would Look Like Afternoon Tea

A mere 8 years ago the United States Supreme Court ended the most controversial Presidential election in American history with their 5-4 decision in Bush v. Gore

Any good civics student should know that in any Presidential election there are 538 electoral votes up for grabs. Get to 270 and you punch your ticket to the White House. Any good math student should see that 538 is an even-number, thus allowing for the remote chance that a Presidential election could end in a 269-269 tie. But is it really that remote of a chance?

Here is a frighteningly realistic scenario for 2008 (probabilities are my estimates):

1. Start with the 2004 electoral map

2. Flip Colorado (Bush won by 5% four years ago) from Republican to Democrat (likelihood of 55%)

3. Flip Iowa (Bush won by 1%) from Republican to Democrat (likelihood of 55%)

4. Flip New Hampshire (Kerry won by 1%) from Democrat to Republican (likelihood of 45%)

5. Flip EITHER Nevada (Bush won by 2%) OR New Mexico (Bush won by 1%) from republican to Democrat. (likelihood of 60%)

Thus, a cursory calculation reveals that there is roughly an 8% chance of the “Nightmare Scenario” occurring in this election. Why a “Nightmare Scenario?” Because under the terms of the 12th Amendment in the event of an electoral tie the winner of a Presidential election is chosen by the U.S. House of Representatives. But it’s not a straight vote by the member of the House (which Obama would win in a walk). Each state receives 1 vote, it’s up to the state’s delegation to determine how that vote is cast. One assumes that every Republican member would vote for McCain and every Democrat member would vote for Obama.

Currently, of the 50 House delegations: 26 are majority Republican, 21 are majority Democrat and 3 states would be tied (I have no earthly idea how those states would resolve themselves). But keep in mind that this is the count for the 110th Congress, but it would be the 111th Congress that would decide the winner of the election. Democrats are expected to gain anywhere from 5 to 15 seats in the Congressional elections this November. But how would these potential Democratic net gains affect the make-up of each state’s Congressional delegation?

I am by no means a Congressional experts so I am going to rip off the projections of Dave Wasserman and the Cook Political Report. There are numerous House delegations where it’s virtually impossible for control to switch from one party to the other. Cook Report lists 20 toss up races — 14 in districts that are currently Republican and the other 6 in current Democrat districts. There are only a handful that have the ability to sway control of a Congressional delegation:

Kansas (currently 2D 2R) — toss up race in a current Democrat district

Alaska (currently 0D 1R) — seat currently held by a Republican (rated toss up)

Arizona (currently 4R 4D) — toss up race in a current Republican district

Mississippi (currently 2R 2D) — toss up race in a current Republican district

New Mexico (currently 2R 1D) — toss up race in a current Republican district

Ohio (currently 11R 7D) two toss up races both in current Republican districts

I’ll let you project your own scenarios but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that after the November elections there could be 24 “Republican delegations”, 24 “Democrat delegations”, and 2 split. Amazingly, the Constitution does not specify what would happen in the event of a 25-25 tie vote in the House. The Constitution only states that “And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President”

Late Primary Fallacies

I have seen countless articles in recent weeks purporting McCain’s supposed weakness among Republicans owing to primaries held in April and May. Most critics will point towards Indiana (McCain fetched 77% of the vote), North Carolina (74%), and Pennsylvania (72%) and decry the fact that 1/4 of Republicans are voting against McCain! Egads!

The leftist noise machine would be well served to take a short walk back to the 2000 Republican primaries. McCain is doing no worse than George W. Bush was in the same primaries back in 2000.  Here are Bush’s totals in some of the April and May primaries from the 2000 Republican nomination cycle:

Wisconsin – 69%

Idaho – 73%

Indiana – 81%

Montana – 78%

North Carolina – 78%

Pennsylvania – 72%

So the next time someone tries to make the argument that McCain is a weak nominee because he’s struggling to break 80% in these late primaries, remind them that he’s doing no worse than a Republican candidate who scored nearly 100 million votes in 2000 and 2004.

The Electoral Map 5/12/08

The semester ended last week so expect much more frequent posts for the next few months.

It’s been quite awhile since we last took a look at electoral math for this November’s general election.  The big development has obviously been Barack Obama’s all but securing the Democratic nomination.  Barring an epic collapse, it’s full steam ahead for a McCain/Obama show-down this November.

Once again every state is placed into one of five categories: Strong McCain, Lean McCain, Tossup, Lean Obama, and Strong Obama.  Placements factor in 2000 and 2004 results, current polling data and general intuition.

School has been kicking my butt lately but let’s take a quick look at the Electoral College in a hypothetical McCain/Obama general election race. I will break down the states into five categories: Strong McCain, Lean McCain, Toss-Up, Lean Obama, and Strong Obama.

Strong McCain

Alabama – 9

Alaska – 3

Arizona – 10

Arkansas – 6

Georgia – 15

Idaho – 4

Indiana – 11

Kansas – 6

Kentucky – 8

Mississippi – 6

Montana – 3

Nebraska – 5

North Dakota – 3

Oklahoma – 7

South Dakota – 3

Tennessee – 11

Texas – 34

Utah – 5

West Virginia – 5

Wyoming – 3

Lean McCain

Florida – 27

Louisiana – 9

Missouri – 11

North Carolina – 15

South Carolina – 8

Virginia – 13

Toss-Up

Colorado – 9

Michigan – 17

Nevada – 5

New Hampshire – 4

New Mexico – 5

Ohio – 20

Pennsylvania – 21

Lean Obama

Iowa – 7

Maine – 4

Minnesota – 10

Oregon – 7

Washington – 11

Wisconsin – 10

Strong Obama

California – 55

Connecticut – 7

Delaware – 3

District of Columbia – 3

Hawaii – 4

Illinois – 21

Maryland – 10

Massachusetts – 12

New York – 31

New Jersey – 15

Rhode Island – 4

Vermont 3

Tallying it all up we get:

Strong McCain – 157, Lean McCain – 83, Toss-Up – 81, Lean Obama – 49, Strong Obama -168

First McCain Television Ad

The McCain campaign released their first television ad this week entitled “624787.” I won’t say what the title means; watch the ad for yourself to find out.

The ad features several of the same video clips from McCain’s popular web ad “Man in the Arena” which was released earlier this month. The ad mostly touts McCain’s leadership skills, patriotism, experience and to some degree his national security credentials. These are expected to remain among McCain’s central themes in the coming months. If the narrator sounds familiar it is because it’s actor Powers Boothe of HBO’s Deadwood fame and most recently as Vice-President Daniels on the 6th season of “24.”

The new ad is currently running only in New Mexico, a key battlegroud state that Bush carried by less than one percent in 2004.

The Electoral Map – 3/28

School has been kicking my butt lately but let’s take a quick look at the Electoral College in a hypothetical McCain/Obama general election race. I will break down the states into five categories: Strong McCain, Lean McCain, Toss-Up, Lean Obama, and Strong Obama.Strong McCain

Alabama – 9

Alaska – 3

Arizona – 10

Arkansas – 6

Idaho – 4

Indiana – 11

Kansas – 6

Kentucky – 8

Mississippi – 6

Montana – 3

Nebraska – 5

North Dakota – 3

Oklahoma – 7

South Dakota – 3

Tennessee – 11

Texas – 34

Utah – 5

Wyoming – 3

Lean McCain

Florida – 27

Georgia – 15

Louisiana – 9

Missouri – 11

North Carolina – 15

South Carolina – 8

Virginia – 13

West Virginia – 5

Toss-Up

Colorado – 9

Nevada – 5

New Hampshire – 4

New Mexico – 5

Ohio – 20

Pennsylvania – 21

Lean Obama

Iowa – 7

Maine – 4

Massachusetts – 12

Michigan – 17

Minnesota – 10

New Jersey – 15

Oregon – 7

Washington – 11

Wisconsin – 10

Strong Obama

California – 55

Connecticut – 7

Delaware – 3

District of Columbia – 3

Hawaii – 4

Illinois – 21

Maryland – 10

New York – 31

Rhode Island – 4

Vermont 3

Tallying it all up we get:

Strong McCain – 137, Lean McCain – 103, Toss-Up – 64, Lean Obama – 93, Strong Obama – 141

So if the election were held today we’d be looking at McCain 240, Obama 234 with only 6 states in play. My gut says McCain will carry Colorado and New Mexico due to their proximity to Arizona. Nevada could very well go for Obama. I think New Hampshire goes to McCain (he’s their favorite son) which brings the race to McCain 258 Obama 239. This leaves us with an extremely interesting dynamic whereby Obama is forced to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania in order to win the election. Don’t forget Obama carried just 44% of the vote in the Ohio Democratic Primary three weeks ago and he’s currently trailing Hillary Clinton by double-digits in Pennsylvania. Two interesting trends to watch:

1. Can Obama poach traditionally-Republican southern states such as Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina — states where he did or will do extremely well in the Democratic primaries.

2. Can McCain poach traditionally-Democratic northeastern states such as Massachusetts and New Jersey? Massachusetts would be an absolute coup but don’t forget that Bush managed to cut the Republican deficit in New Jersey from 17% in 2000 to 7% in 2004 mostly on the strength of national security voters.